Canada's Liberals look beyond Trudeau's leadership

Significance

The loss of one of its safest seats underscores the challenge the party faces in winning the next election, due by mid-2025. While it is unlikely to change either its leader or its policies before then, a real debate is beginning about what a post-Trudeau party should look like.

Impacts

• Economist and banker Mark Carney is the potential Trudeau successor most feared by Conservatives but he is vulnerable to charges of elitism.
• A move to the left or victory for another centrist would give the party little room to grow its base.
• More evidence that the NDP is underperforming reduces the chance that it, rather than the Liberals, becomes the main opposition in 2025.
• A Conservative majority in 2025 would push the next election to 2029 or 2030, giving a new Liberal leader plenty of time to prepare.