Lebanon’s Hezbollah is still betting on deterrence

Significance

Ever since Israel began military operations in Gaza following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, Hezbollah and Israel have fought a limited conflict that has displaced tens of thousands on both sides of Lebanon's southern border. Flanked by external actors seeking to keep a wider war at bay, they have stopped short of a full confrontation -- until now.

Impacts

• Iran believes Hezbollah could manage a war with Israel, though that would change if the group’s leader leader Hassan Nasrallah were killed.
• A war in Lebanon will accelerate migration flows to Europe.
• Iran could struggle in containing militias in Iraq and Syria from retaliating against Western interests if a war erupts in Lebanon.